Working paper
Konjunkturinstitutets resultat från forskning och metodutveckling inom exempelvis arbetsmarknad, produktivitet och finanspolitik. I den miljöekonomiska forskningen ingår samhällsekonomiska analyser som bidrar som beslutsunderlag till svensk miljöpolitik.
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Working Paper no. 155
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Automatic fiscal stabilizers in Sweden 1998–2019
We use data from Sweden, a welfare state that has undertaken sizeable reforms to strengthen work incentives, to shed more light on the trade-off between policies to make work pay and the size of automatic (fiscal) stabilizers.By Johan Almenberg and Markus Sigonius
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Working Paper no. 154
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Nowcasting Swedish GDP Growth
In this paper we nowcast Swedish GDP growth using several types of popular short-term forecasting models.By Sebastian Ankargren and Unn Lindholm
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Working Paper no. 153
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Time-Varying Macroeconomic Forecast Uncertainty: Sweden and the Covid-19 Pandemic
In this paper I construct time-varying uncertainty around forecasts for the Swedish economy published by the National Institute of Economic Research.By Sebastian Ankargren
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Working Paper no. 152
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Forecasting Inflation in Sweden
In this paper, we make use of Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models to conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exercise for CPIF inflation, as used as the inflation target by the Riksbank in Sweden. The proposed BVAR models generally outperform simple benchmark models, the BVAR model used by the Riksbank as presented in Iversen et al. (2016) and professional forecasts made by the National Institute of Economic Research in Sweden. Moreover, the BVAR models proposed in the present paper have better forecasting precision than both survey forecasts and the method suggested by Faust and Wright (2013).By Unn Lindholm, Marcus Mossfeldt and Pär Stockhammar
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Working Paper no. 151
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EU ETS emissions under the cancellation mechanism
Effects of national measuresFrom 2023 onwards, allowances held in the market stability reserve above the number of allowances auctioned the previous year will be cancelled. In this paper, we analyse what consequences additional national emission reductions in the EU ETS sector will have on total emissions given this new cancellation mechanism.By Björn Carlén, Anna Dahlqvist, Svante Mandell and Pelle Marklund
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Working Paper no. 150
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Assessing the Rebound Effect in Energy Intensive Industries
A Factor Demand Model Approach with Asymmetric Price Response.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the direct rebound effect potentially prevailing in energy intense industries. The rebound effect represents economic mechanisms that will offset energy savings from energy efficiency improvements.By Anna Dahlqvist, Tommy Lundgren and Per-Olov Marklund
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Working Paper no. 149
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Wage Flexibility in a Unionized Economy with Stable Wage Dispersion
The paper estimates how wages respond to changes in regional unemployment using detailed Swedish micro data.By Mikael Carlsson, Iida Häkkinen Skans and Oskar Nordström Skans
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Working Paper no. 148
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Direct and indirect effects of waste management policies on household waste behaviour: The case of Sweden
This paper studies how two municipal policy instruments – weight-based waste tariffs and special systems for the collection of food waste – affect the collected volumes of different types of waste.By Camilla Andersson and Jesper Stage
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Working Paper No. 147
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Short Run Effects of Fiscal Policy on GDP and Employment: Swedish Evidence
In this paper, we use a newly published quarterly Swedish data set on fiscal variables and estimate the effects on GDP and employment for the period 1980q1–2015q3.By Göran Hjelm and Pär Stockhammar
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Working Paper No. 146
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Forecasting Goods and Services Inflation in Sweden
In this paper, we make use of a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model to conduct an out-of-sample forecast exercise for goods and services inflation in Sweden.By Marcus Mossfeldt and Pär Stockhammar
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Working Paper No. 145
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Do Inflation Expectations Granger Cause Inflation?
In this paper, we investigate whether survey measures of inflation expectations in Sweden Granger cause Swedish CPI-inflation. This is done by studying the precision of out-of-sample forecasts from Bayesian VAR models using a sample of quarterly data from 1996 to 2016.By Pär Stockhammar and Pär Österholm
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Working Paper No. 144
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Forecasting Employment Growth in Sweden Using Bayesian VAR Models
In this paper, Bayesian VAR models are used to forecast employment growth in Sweden. Using quarterly data from 1996 to 2015, we conduct an out-of-sample forecast exercise.
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Working Paper No. 143
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Quasi-Real-Time Data of the Economic Tendency Survey
In this paper, we describe how two quasi-real-time data sets of this survey have been constructed and made publicly available – one monthly and one quarterly.
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Working Paper No. 142
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The Rise in Life Expectancy, Health Trends among the Elderly, and the Demand for Health and Social Care
The objective of this report is to review the evidence on (a) ageing and health and (b) the demand for health and social care among the elderly. The issues discussed are: does health status of the elderly improve over time, and how do the trends in health status of the elderly affect the demand for health and social care? The review is based on some 100 published scientific papers. While it is not a complete review, it covers most recent empirical studies of health trends and the changing pattern of demand for health and social care.
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Working Paper No. 141
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IOR – NIER's Input-Output Model of the Swedish Economy
The present paper introduces a new version of an input-output model of the Swedish economy (IOR). The model is used at NIER for short term forecasts of imports and sectoral production. It is also used for structural analysis of the Swedish economy.
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Working Paper No. 139
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Do Swedish Consumer Confidence Indicators Do What They Are Intended to Do?
I studien undersöks om de två huvudsakliga konsumentförtroendeindikatorerna i Sverige — Konjunkturinstitutets och Europeiska kommissionens — kan prognostisera utvecklingen i hushållens konsumtionsutgifter för innevarande kvartal.
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Working Paper No. 138
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Macroeconomic Effects of a Decline in Housing Prices in Sweden
Ett 20-procentigt bostadsprisfall skulle ha en recessionsliknande effekt på arbetslöshet och hushållens konsumtion. Det visar en kvantitativ bedömning av makroekonomiska effekter vid ett betydande prisfall.
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Working Paper No. 137
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Appropriate Macroeconomic Model Support for the Ministry of Finance and the National Institute of Economic Research: A Pilot Study
I rapporten analyseras makroekonomiska modellval vid ett antal internationella institutioner. Syftet är att utvärdera lämpliga modellalternativ för Finansdepartementet och Konjunkturinstitutet.
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Working Paper No. 136
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A Statistical Analysis of Revisions of Swedish National Accounts Data
I rapporten analyseras historiska revideringar av svenska nationalräkenskapsdata utifrån tre aspekter: volatilitet, väntevärdesriktighet och prognoseffektivitet. Resultaten visar på problematiska aspekter av revideringarnas egenskaper — mer för produktionssidan än för BNP och användningssidan.
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Working Paper No. 135
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Effects of US Policy Uncertainty on Swedish GDP Growth
Ökad amerikansk politisk osäkerhet har signifikant negativ effekt på svensk BNP-tillväxt. Studien visar att förändringar i politisk osäkerhet i synnerhet verkar hålla tillbaka investerings- och exporttillväxt.
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Working Paper No. 134
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The Euro Crisis and Swedish GDP Growth— A Study of Spillovers
I denna studie används en bayesiansk VAR-modell för att studera effekterna av störningar i euroområdet på den svenska ekonomin.
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Working Paper No. 133
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Challenges in Soft-Linking: The Case of EMEC and TIMES-Sweden
I studien utvecklas en metod för hur en allmänjämviktsmodell (CGE-modell) och en energisystemmodell kan länkas samman via en så kallad mjuk länk.
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Kontakt
Svante Mandell
Chef miljöekonomi
08-453 59 74
Ylva Hedén Westerdahl
Prognoschef
08-453 59 77