2017-12-21

Economic Tendency Survey December 2017

Manufacturing sentiment stronger than normal despite December fall

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell 1.3 points from 113.8 in November to 112.5 in December but still points to much more positive sentiment than normal in the economy. The fall was down to the manufacturing, construction and retail indicators, while the service indicator gained 2.0 points. Consumers’ view of the economy did not change appreciably in December and remains more positive than normal.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell 4.2 points in December, but is still at very high levels and continues to show a much stronger situation than normal in the sector. The main component pulling down the indicator was firms’ production plans for the next three months.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry fell for a second month to 110.3, due to a slight downward adjustment of recruitment plans for the next three months, but still points to a very strong situation in the sector.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade also fell slightly in December to just above its historical average. Slightly increased dissatisfaction with excessive stocks contributed to the fall.

The confidence indicator for the service industry climbed from 104.9 in November to 106.9 in December and suggests a stronger situation than normal in the sector. The increase was due to firms being more positive both about how their operations have developed in recent months, and about how demand will fare in the coming months.

In the consumer survey, both the micro index and the macro index were largely unchanged in December, with households remaining more positive than normal about both their personal finances and the Swedish economy.

Indicators

 

Oct
2017

Nov
2017

Dec
2017

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

113,5

113,8

112,5

++

Confidence indicators:

    

Total industry

109,9

110,0

109,6

+

Manufacturing

121,0

121,0

116,8

++

Building and civil engineering

114,7

112,3

110,3

++

Retail Trade

103,3

104,2

102,9

+

Private service sectors

104,7

104,9

106,9

+

Consumer

106,6

108,0

108,2

+


Note.
The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The indicators are revised each month when the time series are seasonally adjusted. The values will often then move slightly up or down.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

 


Household expectations on inflation and interest rate

 

Oct
2017

Nov
2017

Dec
2017

Change

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean excluding extreme values (percent)

2,8

2,3

2,8

0,5

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean all answers (percent)

3,2

2,6

3,4

0,8

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, median (percent)

2,0

2,0

2,0

0,0

Interest rate expectation, mean excluding extreme values (percent):

    

1 year ahead

2,26

2,27

2,31

0,04

2 years ahead

2,74

2,74

2,74

0,00

5 years ahead

3,58

3,49

3,44

-0,05

Changes to the consumer survey

Since November 2017, the two questions about expectations for housing prices are no longer form part of the consumer survey. From January 2018, the questions about plans to buy a car, purchase a home and make home improvements in the next 12 months will be included in the survey only every third month (January, April, July and October).

Subscribe to our newsletters

Email

Newsletters:
Current reports on the economy
Working Papers