Occasional Studies - Konjunkturinstitutet

2/28/2022 | Occasional Study

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2022

Although the pandemic has placed a substantial burden on public finances in the short term, the NIER considers Sweden’s public finances to be long-term sustainable. Current tax rules are sufficient to fund a growing need for welfare services as the population ages. We believe there is scope to cut taxes or increase expenditure and still meet the surplus target. Even if this is replaced with a balanced-budget target at the next review, Maastricht debt does not exceed the debt anchor. Our analysis is based on a number of assumptions, including that the population’s health improves as life expectancy increases, and so more people choose to work to a later age. Public finances are also considered sustainable in the alternative scenarios presented. Our analysis does show, however, that the assumption of improved health is crucial to sustainability in the longer term. Compared with previous years’ calculations, a more favourable demographic outlook and a better starting position contribute to stronger public finances than in this year’s report.

11/2/2021 | Occasional Study

Fiscal multipliers in Sweden

Fiscal multipliers for eight different fiscal instruments are calculated using the National Institute of Economic Research's DSGE model SELMA, a model which is parameterized to match the behavior of the Swedish economy. The fiscal multipliers are largely in line with the literature on fiscal multipliers. The government consumption multiplier is close to, but higher
than 1, which is in line with consensus in the empirical literature. Furthermore, it is shown that the conducted monetary policy during and after the fiscal stimulus matter significantly for the resulting multiplier. The use of an empirically reasonable monetary policy rule does however not change the consumption multiplier from the consensus view. In addition, it is shown that using monetary policy accommodation yields a stronger increase in the fiscal multipliers than if the monetary policy rate is at its lower bound.

3/3/2021 | Occasional Study

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic has come at considerable cost to Sweden, including for public finances. In the report’s base scenario, both the government’s net financial position and Maastricht debt as a share of GDP are nevertheless around the same in 2050 as they were before the pandemic. Public finances are therefore considered to be long-term sustainable. Much of the recovery in public finances will, however, take place in the near term as the economy rebounds. The base scenario assumes that the population grows healthier and works to a greater age. In an alternative scenario where this does not happen, public finances are not found to be long-term sustainable.

4/1/2019 | Occasional Study

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2019

An ageing population will put pressure on public finances in the coming decades. The NIER’s Fiscal Sustainability Report 2019 shows that Sweden’s current strong public finances provide much-needed space to meet demographic challenges, but the margins are small.

4/10/2017 | Occasional Studies

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2017

This report presents an assessment of the sustainability of Sweden’s public finances. It is based on the NIER’s December 2016 fiscal and economic projections and Statistics Sweden’s October 2016 population forecast. The aim of sustainability assessments of this kind is to identify potential future imbalances in public finances at an early stage.

3/4/2016 | Occasional Study 47

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2016

The NIER assesses the long-term sustainability of Sweden’s public finances annually at the government’s request. Public finances can be considered sustainable if government income under current rules is sufficient to fund future expenditure to maintain the public sector commitment. The assessment is based on long-term projections of government income and expenditure under various assumptions.

5/5/2015 | Occasional Study 43

The long-term sustainability of Sweden's public finances

The proportion of elderly in the population increases in the coming decades, which is expected to result in an increased need for welfare services. This year's fiscal sustainability analysis highlights the importance of an extended working life and healthy aging to achieve balance in public finances ahead.

4/7/2014 | Occasional Study 39

Is an Unchanged Public Sector Commitment a Sustainable Commitment? An assessment of the long-term sustainability of Swedish public finances

Average life expectancy in Sweden is set to grow by at least four years over the next half a century. An ageing population raises questions about the future level and financing of welfare services. This report analyses the long-term sustainability of public finances in Sweden.

5/22/2008 | Occasional Study 17

Hours, Capital and Technology - What Matters Most?

This occasional study analyzes the development of productivity in various industries within the Swedish business sector and in that sector as a whole during the years 1997—2005.

3/31/2008 | Occasional Study 16

Conceptual Framework for Fiscal Policy

This report describes how the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) reaches its fiscal policy assessments, in regard to the trade-off between the goal of stabilization and targets for public finances, for example.

5/26/2004 | Occasional Study 4

Ecosystems, Sustainability and Growth for Sweden during 1991-2001

The purpose of this paper is to present calculations of non-marketed values of changes in Swedish natural capital assets. The value of changes in natural capital, or wealth change, is then estimated as net values of current and future production of non-marketed ecosystem services.

5/8/2002 | Occasional Study 2

Owner-occupied housing in the consumer price index

In November 1999, the Committee set up to review the consumer price index (the CPI Committee), presented its report –Konsumentprisindex (The Consumer Price Index) SOU 1999:124 (in Swedish with English summary).