Occasional Studies

2026-03-04 | MARCH 2026

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2026

Fiscal sustainability is assessed based on whether public expenditure can be financed over the long term under current policies. The baseline scenario in this report presents the development of public finances based on a demographic projection in which current tax rules, replacement rates in transfer systems, and staffing levels in publicly provided services remain unchanged until 2060.

2025-02-26 | FEBRAUARY 2025

Public finances remain strong in light of demographic developments

According to the National Institute of Economic Research’s (NIER) directive in Act (2007:759), the agency shall carry out long-term projections of public finances and assess the long-term sustainability of public finances. In light of this mandate, NIER publishes a report on the sustainability of public finances.

2022-02-28 | FEBRUARY 2022

Summary of the Fiscal Sustainability Report 2022

Although the pandemic has placed a substantial burden on public finances in the short term, the NIER considers Sweden’s public finances to be long-term sustainable. Current tax rules are sufficient to fund a growing need for welfare services as the population ages. We believe there is scope to cut taxes or increase expenditure and still meet the surplus target.

2021-03-03 | FEBRUARY 2021

Summary of the Fiscal Sustainability Report 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic has come at considerable cost to Sweden, including for public finances. In the report’s base scenario, both the government’s net financial position and Maastricht debt as a share of GDP are nevertheless around the same in 2050 as they were before the pandemic.