Economic Tendency Survey January 2019
Broad-based decline in confidence in January
The Economic Tendency Indicator fell for a fourth month from 105.6 in December to 101.9 in January following weaker signals from all sectors other than construction.
The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell 4 points in January and has dropped no fewer than 10 points in five months. It is still above 110, however, a level that points to a much stronger situation than normal. The decline is relatively broad-based, with most of the subsector indicators having fallen.
The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry increased marginally for a second month following a reversal of the downward trend in firms’ view of their order books. The indicator points to a slightly stronger situation than normal in the sector.
The confidence indicator for the retail trade fell from 103.1 in December to 100.7 in January. While this equates to largely normal sentiment in the sector as a whole, the indicator is being propped up solely by food retailers. The signals from specialist retailers and the motor trade are more pessimistic than normal.
The confidence indicator for the service sector fell for a fourth month to a level that corresponds to a weaker situation than normal. All of the questions contributed to the decline, which is also broad-based across the various subsectors.
Consumers became even more downbeat in January, with the indicator dropping to 92.0. All of the questions except for personal finances over the past year contributed to the fall. Consumers are particularly pessimistic about the outlook for the Swedish economy over the next 12 months.