2026-06-16
Swedish Economy Report June 2026
The Swedish economy has been in a recovery phase since 2025, and resource utilisation will continue to rise going forward. The war in the Middle East will have a somewhat dampening effect on the economy ahead.
Tax cuts will have a clear dampening effect on inflation in 2026, which therefore will be below the Riks-bank’s inflation target. Next year, the oil price will continue to decline, but inflation will nevertheless rise and lie above, but close to, the target. GDP growth becomes higher during the autumn 2026 as domestic demand grows more quickly. The policy rate will be raised by 0.25 percentage points at the end of 2026 and once more in 2027. The economic downturn will taper off next year. The recovery in the labour market will take longer, however, and unemployment will continue to be somewhat ele-vated by the end of 2027. The fiscal policy means that general government structural net lending will be significantly below the surplus target this year and the budget balance target next year.
