2026-10-29
Economic Tendency Survey October 2026
Sharp fall in consumer sentiment
The Economic Tendency Indicator increased in October and, for the fourth consecutive month, points to stronger-than-normal sentiment in the Swedish economy. However, the Consumer Confidence Indicator fell sharply, mainly due to households’ expectations regarding their own financial situation and the Swedish economy. The decline corresponds to the combined increase over the past three months, bringing the Consumer Confidence Indicator back to its June 2026 level. Sentiment is stronger than normal in all sectors of the business sector. In both manufacturing and trade, sentiment is substantially stronger than normal. Firms’ pricing plans increased and indicate price increases to a much greater extent than normal.
The Manufacturing Confidence Indicator increased sharply in October and is now at its highest level since August 2022. The increase is explained by stronger production plans compared with September, as well as improved assessments of current order books and the fact that stocks of finished goods are now considered excessively large to a lesser extent than normal.
The Construction Confidence Indicator was unchanged in October. Both assessments of current order books and employment plans were unchanged.
The Trade Confidence Indicator was broadly unchanged in October and, for the fourth consecutive month, remained at a level indicating substantially stronger-than-normal sentiment. A smaller share of firms than normal report that selling prices have increased over the past three months. However, expectations of higher selling prices over the next three months remain above normal.
The Services Confidence Indicator increased in October and has been on an upward trend since March. Developments in firms’ business activity made the largest contribution to the increase in the indicator, while expectations for demand over the next three months held back the increase.
Expectations regarding both households’ own financial situation and the Swedish economy over the next twelve months made the largest negative contributions to the Consumer Confidence Indicator. Households’ views of their own financial situation twelve months from now are now clearly below normal. Assessments of both households’ own financial situation and the Swedish economy over the past twelve months also weakened. Only attitudes towards major purchases at present were unchanged in October.
