2025-04-29
Economic Tendency Survey April 2025
Unchanged sentiment but increased uncertainty
The Economic Tendency Indicator remained largely unchanged in April, indicating subdued sentiment. The consumers' confidence indicator fell further, while the business sector as a whole exhibited an unchanged sentiment. However, significantly more firms than in March reported difficulties in predicting future business conditions. The National Institute of Economic Research has not been able to observe any clear differences in responses from industrial firms or consumers before and after President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on 2 April.
The manufacturing confidence indicator rose by 2.9 points, suggesting a normal sentiment level. However, industrial firms' assessments of profitability deteriorated, reaching the lowest level since mid-2020. More than half of the industrial firms indicated that demand is limiting production. Order intake is reported to have increased in the export market while remaining nearly unchanged in the domestic market over the past three months.
The confidence indicator for the retail sector increased slightly in April to 104.1, continuing to display the strongest sentiment among the sectors. Nevertheless, firms remain significantly more dissatisfied with profitability than normal. Expectations among retail firms regarding the development of sales prices over the next three months rose slightly further in April and remain significantly above normal.
The services sector confidence indicator rose marginally to 98.0. The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry decreased slightly and has now remained around 100 for six consecutive months.
The consumers' confidence indicator has declined by over 16 points during the past three months, representing both a sharp and rapid downturn. In April, all components of the indicator weakened, with consumers showing a markedly increased pessimism regarding both their own finances and the Swedish economy. The low level of the indicator reflects a considerably more negative sentiment than usual. Consumers' inflation expectations for the next twelve months continue to rise, increasing from 9.2 per cent in March to 9.5 per cent in April.
On 2 April, the American President Donald Trump made extensive statements regarding new tariffs, which, among other things, contributed to a significant stock market decline. The National Institute of Economic Research (KI) examined whether there were differences in responses from firms in the manufacturing industry and consumers submitted before and after this date. KI has not been able to observe any clear differences in the responses before and after 2 April.
