2026-09-30
Swedish Economy Report
Swedish Economy Report September 2026
The recovery in the Swedish economy has come a long way, and the output gap is closing. Household consumption, investment and exports will all contribute to GDP growth of 3 per cent this year. Growth will slow next year as higher inflation and interest rates mean that household purchasing power increases more slowly.
The recovery has so far been driven largely by productivity, and the labour market has therefore lagged behind. Demand for labour will pick up in 2027, and unemployment will fall. High global energy prices will gradually have a greater impact on Swedish inflation, and CPIF inflation will rise above the Riksbank’s inflation target in 2027 before falling back towards the target towards the end of the year. The Riksbank will raise the policy rate at the end of 2026 and continue to raise it to 2.75 per cent at the beginning of 2028.
We estimate fiscal space of around SEK 120 billion for the period 2027–2030.
