2026-07-30
Economic Tendency Survey July 2026
The Economic Tendency Indicator stronger than normal
The Economic Tendency Indicator increased for the third consecutive month, indi-cating that economic sentiment is now stronger than normal. Sentiment strength-ened further in the manufacturing industry and rose markedly in trade, where it is now very strong. Consumers became less pessimistic but remain the weakest of the sectors. Price plans were unchanged across the business sector and remained above normal, particularly in the manufacturing industry. However, firms’ inflation expectations for the next 12 months declined.
The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry increased further in July. The rise was primarily driven by more optimistic production plans. However, developments differed across industries. Sentiment in the investment goods industry was significantly stronger than normal, whereas it was considerably weaker than normal in the food industry. Order intake was reported to have continued to increase in both export and domestic markets over the past three months, particularly in the domestic market, where expectations for order intake over the coming three months were also unusually optimistic.
The confidence indicator for construction increased following the decline in June and once again points to a normal level of economic sentiment. The improvement was mainly driven by more optimistic employment plans, while assessments of order books remained weaker than normal. Firms nevertheless reported stronger growth in order books over recent months and were, to a much greater extent than normal, optimistic about their future development. Optimism regarding the outlook for the construction market over the next 12 months was also unusually widespread.
The confidence indicator for the trade sector increased sharply, indicating a very strong level of economic sentiment, the strongest since March 2022. The increase was the largest among all sectors this month and was driven by all component questions, with expectations regarding future sales making the largest contribution. Both firms’ overall assessment of the current sales situation and their expectations for the sales situation over the next six months increased and are now stronger than normal.
The confidence indicator for the service sector was virtually unchanged compared with June and remained at a normal level. Firms’ assessments of business activity and demand over the past three months weakened slightly, but the decline in the indicator was offset by more optimistic expectations regarding demand over the coming three months. Assessments of the volume of assignments were in line with normal, while profitability continued to be regarded as weaker than normal.
The consumer confidence indicator increased in July but, despite the improvement, continued to indicate a somewhat weaker-than-normal level of economic sentiment. All component questions contributed to the increase. Consumers’ expectations regarding their own financial situation over the next 12 months and their attitude towards major purchases were the components weighing most heavily on the indicator, while the remaining components were at normal levels. Sentiment improved among both women and men. However, consumers continued to regard the purchase of a car within the next 12 months as highly unlikely.
Starting with the August 2026 publication, we will change the release time for the Business Tendency Survey from 9:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. The release time will thereby be harmonized with other official statistics. For further information, see https://www.konj.se/publikationer/kommande-publiceringar/.
