2026-03-25
Economic Tendency Survey March 2026
Continued Moderately Strong Sentiment
The Economic Tendency Indicator remained largely unchanged in March, indicating a sentiment level consistent with normal conditions. All indicators within the business sector point to a normal sentiment, with the exception of construction, where conditions strengthened further and are now above normal. In contrast, sentiment among consumers remains weaker than normal and declined slightly in March. Firms expect to raise selling prices to a normal extent over the next three months.
However, price plans in the retail sector are significantly below normal. This is due to many firms within the grocery trade anticipating reduced selling prices, coinciding with the VAT reduction on food introduced on 1 April.
Within manufacturing, firms’ expectations regarding the development of production volumes, together with their assessment of current order books, contributed to a stronger sentiment.
The upturn in construction is primarily driven by more optimistic employment plans, particularly within specialised construction activities, which also represent the strongest sub-sector within construction.
The sharp decline in retail is largely explained by downward revisions to expectations of sales volumes over the next three months, as well as a less positive assessment of sales volumes over the past three months.
The confidence indicator for the services sector decreased. This decline is mainly explained by firms’ dampened expectations of demand over the coming three months.
Although the decline in consumer sentiment is primarily due to more pessimistic expectations regarding Sweden’s economy, it is the outlook for households’ own financial situation over the next twelve months, together with attitudes towards major purchases, that continues to weigh on the indicator.
In connection with the next quarterly release in April, we are changing the reporting principle for quarterly series and reducing the number of series in the statistical database.
Changes to the statistical database in connection with
the release on 27 April 2026
Changed reporting principle
The National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) is changing the reporting principle for quarterly series in the statistical database.
Survey rounds will be linked to quarters as follows:
• the January survey is reported as the first quarter
• the April survey is reported as the second quarter
• the July survey is reported as the third quarter
• the October survey is reported as the fourth quarter
Changed content in the quarterly tables for companies
Going forward, NIER will report only the series that are collected on a quarterly basis in the quarterly tables. Previously, the quarterly tables contained both series from quarterly questions and monthly values from monthly questions were presented as quarterly data. In the future, the monthly values will only be available in the monthly tables.
