2026-02-26
Economic Tendency Survey February 2026
Weaker sentiment in manufacturing
The Economic Tendency Indicator declined in February and now indicates a broadly normal level of sentiment in the Swedish economy. The downturn is mainly explained by developments in manufacturing. Confidence indicators for both trade and the service sector also fell, while the confidence indicators for consumers and construction improved.
Across the business sector as a whole, firms expect to raise selling prices over the coming three months at a rate consistent with historical norms. Differences between sectors are relatively small, but grocery retail stands out clearly: firms in this segment expect significant price declines.
The decline in manufacturing is primarily attributable to subdued production plans, which are below the historical average. The share of firms assessing finished-goods inventories as excessively large remains lower than normal and contributes positively to the indicator.
A weaker sales volume over the past three months explains the decline in the confidence indicator for trade. The decline was partly offset by more optimistic expectations regarding sales volume over the coming three months.
The decline in the service sector is explained by the two questions concerning the firm’s activity over the past three months and demand over the past three months. Expected demand for the firm’s services over the coming three months partly mitigates the decline.
The increase in the confidence indicator for construction is explained by more optimistic recruitment plans and a less negative assessment of the order book.
The confidence indicator for consumers increased as a result of a more positive view of both the financial situation of the consumers’ own household now and the Swedish economy now, compared with twelve months ago. However, the indicator remains weaker than normal.
In connection with the next quarterly release in April, we are changing the reporting principle for quarterly series and reducing the number of series in the statistical database.
Changes to the statistical database in connection with
the release on 27 April 2026
Changed reporting principle
The National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) is changing the reporting principle for quarterly series in the statistical database.
Survey rounds will be linked to quarters as follows:
• the January survey is reported as the first quarter
• the April survey is reported as the second quarter
• the July survey is reported as the third quarter
• the October survey is reported as the fourth quarter
Changed content in the quarterly tables for companies
Going forward, NIER will report only the series that are collected on a quarterly basis in the quarterly tables. Previously, the quarterly tables contained both series from quarterly questions and monthly values from monthly questions were presented as quarterly data. In the future, the monthly values will only be available in the monthly tables.
