2026-01-29
Economic Tendency Survey January 2026
Minor changes in the Economic Tendency Indicator
After rising for six consecutive months, The Economic Tendency Indicator edged down slightly in January, but continues to signal a stronger-than-normal level of sentiment. The only sectoral confidence indicator to record a more pronounced decline was con-struction, while the confidence indicators for the other sectors decreased only mar-ginally.
The downturn in construction is explained by more pessimistic employment plans. Firms’ assessment of the size of the order book remained largely unchanged.
The confidence indicator for the trade sector declined somewhat in January. The decrease is primarily explained by assessments of sales volumes, both over the past three months and expectations for the coming three months. Firms’ views on the size of inventories counteracted part of the decline. Nevertheless, the confidence indicator for trade remains by far the strongest in the survey.
Sentiment in manufacturing remains stronger than normal but was dampened by a more pessimistic assessment of the size of the order book. Expectations regarding sales over the coming three months strengthened slightly, while assessments of inventory levels were unchanged.
The confidence indicator for the services sector declined mainly due to a less optimistic outlook for demand for firms’ services over the coming three months. Firms’ assessments of the development of their business operations and expectations regarding demand over the next three months were largely unchanged in January.
Firms report, to a normal extent, that selling prices have increased over the past three months. However, firms’ expectations continue to point to price increases to a greater extent than normal.
The confidence indicator for consumers declined marginally and indicates a weaker-than-normal level of sentiment. Consumers remain pessimistic about their own financial situation, while their assessment of the economic situation in Sweden is close to the normal level.
In connection with the next quarterly release in April, we are changing the reporting principle for quarterly series and reducing the number of series in the statistical database.
Changes to the statistical database in connection with
the release on 27 April 2026
Changed reporting principle
The National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) is changing the reporting principle for quarterly series in the statistical database.
Survey rounds will be linked to quarters as follows:
• the January survey is reported as the first quarter
• the April survey is reported as the second quarter
• the July survey is reported as the third quarter
• the October survey is reported as the fourth quarter
Changed content in the quarterly tables for companies
Going forward, NIER will report only the series that are collected on a quarterly basis in the quarterly tables. Previously, the quarterly tables contained both series from quarterly questions and monthly values from monthly questions were presented as quarterly data. In the future, the monthly values will only be available in the monthly tables.
