2025-10-30
Economic Tendency Survey October 2025
The Economic Tendency Survey indicates a normalised sentiment
The Economic Tendency Indicator increased in October for the fourth consecutive month and now exceeds its historical average for the first time since July 2022. The confidence indicator for retail trade rose sharply, signalling a significantly stronger sentiment than normal. Sentiment also improved notably within the service sector and among consumers, whereas developments in manufacturing and construction were more modest.
The substantial rise in the retail confidence indicator is primarily explained by more optimistic expectations for sales volumes over the next three months. Moreover, the developments in sales volumes during the past three months have been very strong, contributing to the elevated level of the indicator. However, the situation is less strong in several other aspects not included in the indicator. For example, firms state that the number of employees has remained unchanged over the past three months, and employment plans are weaker than normal. Expectations for sales prices over the coming three months have eased and are now in line with the historical average.
The confidence indicator for the service sector increased and now stands above the normal level. However, the picture varies across different industries. Hotels and restaurants, as well as travel agencies and tour operators, are examples of industries showing the strongest sentiment. In personnel leasing—one of the largest service industries—the situation remains weaker than normal.
The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry rose marginally and is now in line with the historical average. The increase is explained by stronger production plans, which nevertheless remain below the historical average. Firms’ assessments of the current order backlog weakened, counteracting the upward trend, while assessments of stock levels were unchanged.
The confidence indicator for construction was largely unchanged and indicates a weaker-than-normal sentiment. Firms’ expectations regarding construction activity over a three-month horizon are close to normal and point towards increased construction. At the same time, expectations for developments in the construction market over a one-year horizon are considerably more optimistic than normal and at their highest level since 2016.
The confidence indicator for consumers increased for the sixth consecutive month and is now approaching a normal level of sentiment. However, consumers remain negatively disposed towards major purchases at present, resulting in the indicator still pointing to a weaker-than-normal sentiment.
