2025-07-30
Economic Tendency Survey July 2025
Sharp improvement in consumer sentiment
The Economic Tendency Indicator rose in July, although it continues to signal a sentiment that remains weaker than normal. The confidence indi-cator for consumers increased markedly – the second largest monthly in-crease since the time series began in 1996. Despite this positive develop-ment among consumers, it remains the sector with the weakest sentiment overall. Sentiment also improved in the retail and services sectors. Howev-er, the indicators for manufacturing and construction declined, dampening the overall rise in the Economic Tendency Indicator.
The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry decreased in July and signals a sentiment that is weaker than normal. This decline is mainly attributable to weaker production plans over a three-month horizon. Fewer manufacturing firms than in June report that production volumes have decreased over the past three months due to changes in tariffs or the prevailing uncertainty surrounding tariff issues. Looking ahead, three in ten firms in the manufacturing industry expect a slight decline in production volumes due to changes in tariffs – a reduction compared to June. Simultaneously, three in ten firms anticipate lower investment over the next twelve months as a result of the changed tariffs or the uncertainty associated with the issue.
The confidence indicator for construction declined slightly but still points to a sentiment consistent with normal levels. Firms report that construction activity has decreased over the past three months, but expect an increase over the coming three months. Firms also anticipate that market prospects in the construction sector will improve over a one-year horizon.
The confidence indicator for the retail trade recovered part of last month’s sharp decline and now indicates sentiment in line with normal levels. Firms’ expectations regarding sales prices over the next three months have increased in the retail trade and, to some extent, also in the food retail segment, though remain largely unchanged for the trade sector as a whole compared with June. Overall, price expectations within the trade sector remain above the historical average, a trend that also holds for the business sector as a whole.
The confidence indicator for the services sector showed the strongest growth among all sectors in the business sector, with an increase of 3.1 points to 96.4. One subsector with particularly strong development was hotels and restaurants, whose indicator rose sharply by 9.9 points to 101.5. Within the services sector as a whole, the share of firms reporting labour shortages remains lower than normal.
The confidence indicator for consumers rose sharply in July but still indicates weak sentiment. All sub-indicators showed an increase, particularly those related to the household’s own financial situation, both in terms of developments over the past twelve months and expectations for the coming twelve months.
