2025-06-26
Economic Tendency Survey June 2025
Slightly Weaker Economic Sentiment
The Economic Tendency Indicator fell in June and shows a mood weaker than usual. The sentiment weakened across all sectors, with the service sector contributing most to the decline. Within trade sector, there was a sharp drop in sentiment. On the other hand, consumer confidence indicator rose slightly. Firms expect rising sales prices, but to a lesser extent than in May. Price expectations vary between different sectors. Among service firms, they are higher than normal, while they are below the historical average in manufacturing industry and construction.
The confidence indicator for manufacturing industry declined marginally and remains close to the historical average. Price plans in the manufacturing industry fell notably this month, driven largely by the motor vehicle industry, where companies expect price reductions in the coming three months.
More manufacturing firms than in May reported a decrease in production volumes over the past three months due to changed tariffs or the uncertainty surrounding tariff issues. Looking ahead, just over four in ten firms within the manufacturing industry expect a decline in production volumes due to changed tariffs, which is roughly the same proportion as in May. However, the majority of firms responding negatively to the questions have answered “to a small extent” rather than “to a large extent”.
The confidence indicator for construction fell in June but still signals a normally strong mood. The decline is attributed to the firms' view of the order backlog worsening. At the same time, firms expect an increase in both construction and order backlog over the coming three months.
The confidence indicator for the trade sector dropped sharply, signalling a weak mood. This decline is one of the largest ever recorded for the trade sector in the Economic Tendency Indicator survey. Until June, the indicator had been the strongest in the business sector for nearly a year. All the questions in the indicator contributed to the decline. The largest negative contribution came from the inventory question, with more firms reporting that their inventories are too large compared to May.
The confidence indicator for the service sector continued to decline, reaching its lowest level since February 2024, reflecting the weakest sentiment in the business sector. Service firms are more negative than usual, both regarding demand developments over the past three months and their expectations for future demand.
The consumers' confidence indicator rose slightly for the second consecutive month but remains at a low level, pointing to a continued very weak mood. The increase in June can be attributed to a less pessimistic outlook on Sweden's economy, both in terms of its performance over the past twelve months and expectations for the year ahead.
