2025-05-27
Economic Tendency Survey May 2025
Minor changes in sentiment
The Economic Tendency Indicator remained largely unchanged in May and continues to signal a subdued economic sentiment. The sharp decline in the consumer confidence indicator observed over recent months was reversed into a modest increase; however, the consumer sector remains by far the most pessimistic. The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry was virtually unchanged in May and aligns with the historical average. Most manufacturing firms report that they are either unaffected or only marginally affected by altered tariffs or uncertainty surrounding future tariff levels.
As of May, three temporary questions have been posed to firms in the manufacturing industry to assess the impact of altered tariffs on their operations. Two out of ten firms indicate that their production volumes have slightly declined due to changes in tariffs. Looking ahead, just over four out of ten firms expect a decrease in production volumes due to either altered tariffs or the prevailing uncertainty regarding tariffs; however, this too is assessed to occur only to a limited extent. Almost no firms report that their production volumes have been or are expected to be significantly affected. Investments are similarly not expected to be significantly influenced by tariffs.
Manufacturing firms report that order intake over the past three months has remained unchanged in the domestic market, while it has increased at a normal rate in the export market. Expectations regarding the development of production volumes over the next three months are muted. Although an increase in production volume is anticipated, it is expected to occur to a lesser extent than usual.
The confidence indicator for the construction industry rose for the third consecutive month and now exceeds the historical average for the first time since December 2022. The increase in May is attributed to improved assessments of the order backlog among firms. Going forward, firms expect an increase in both construction activity and order backlog over the coming three months.
The confidence indicator for the trade sector rose marginally in May and currently reflects the strongest sentiment among the various sectors. The proportion of firms expecting rising sales prices over the next three months has declined compared with April. Despite this, price expectations remain above the historical average. In both the food retail and durable goods retail sectors, expectations for price increases are significantly higher than normal, whereas firms in the motor vehicle trade report price expectations that are clearly below the historical norm.
The confidence indicator for the service sector declined, signalling weak sentiment. The decline is primarily explained by more subdued expectations among firms regarding demand over the next three months.
Consumers, despite the increase in May, continue to hold a highly pessimistic view of both their own economic situation and that of the Swedish economy. Their perception of the present time as suitable for purchasing durable goods remains exceptionally negative. Furthermore, their plans to purchase durable goods over a twelve-month horizon are markedly more restrained than usual.
Questions Removed from the Economic Tendency Survey
Four questions are no longer being asked in the Economic Tendency Survey. These are:
| Sector | Removed Question | Frequency | Last Reporting |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Manufacturing |
Number of production weeks covered by the current order book | Quarterly | April |
|
Manufacturing |
How has your company's competitive situation changed over the past 3 months in the domestic market? | Quarterly | April |
|
Construction |
Number of production weeks covered by the current order book | Quarterly | April |
| Households | Given the general economic situation, how do you feel about saving at the moment? Saving includes reducing any loans. | Monthly | April |
A review of common questions has been carried out at the EU level. It was decided that eight questions would no longer be reported to the EU, as they are considered to have limited user value relative to the burden on respondents. Following this review, the National Institute of Economic Research (Konjunkturinstitutet, KI) conducted its own assessment and concluded that four of the questions hold significant value for several of our users and will therefore continue to be asked. The four questions listed in the table above are also assessed by KI to have limited user value and will therefore no longer be asked.
