Working Paper no. 156

The Environmental Medium-Term Economic (EMEC) Model: Version 4

Our objective with this working paper is to describe in full this latest version of the EMEC model and how we work with the model in reference and policy scenarios.

By Vincent M. Otto and David von Below

We start by first describing the basics of the model structure and how we evaluate policy with the model in section 2. We describe the model specification in full in section 3 and describe the calibration of the model to data in section 4. We subsequently describe the setup and results of a set of three reference scenarios in section 5 and describe the setup and results of an example policy scenario in section 6. Further, we analyse the sensitivity of a key model result of the policy scenario to changes in key parameter values in section 7. Given that it is difficult to analyse the sensitivity of model results to limitations in the model specification, we discuss future model development in section 8.

In addition, we list the complete set of model sets, variables, parameters, and equations in Appendices A-D and describe the calibration of model equations in detail in Appendix E.

For the interested reader, we include references to the relevant conditions and equations in these appendices between brackets throughout the text. Finally, we provide an accounting of CO2 emissions in the base-year data and model in Appendix F.