2021-09-29
Swedish Economy Report September 2021
Swedish economy report september 2021
The reduced prevalence of Covid-19 and easing of pandemic restrictions over the summer have helped the recovery in the Swedish economy to pick up considerable speed in the third quarter. Shortages of materials and logistical issues will continue to constrain production to some extent in the coming quarters, but the economy will continue to strengthen nonetheless.
The relatively extensive measures in the government budget for 2022 will stimulate demand growth and help the output gap to turn mildly positive in the second half of next year. The labour market, however, will take longer to recover. Unemployment will not drop back to 7.0 per cent until early 2023.
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP, market prices | –2,8 | 4,7 | 3,9 | 1,4 | 1,5 | 1,7 |
GDP per capita | –3,5 | 4,2 | 3,4 | 1,0 | 1,1 | 1,2 |
GDP, calendar-adjusted | –3,0 | 4,6 | 3,9 | 1,6 | 1,5 | 1,8 |
GDP, KIX-weighted (1) | –4,1 | 5,6 | 4,5 | 2,5 | 2,1 | 2,0 |
CPI, KIX-weighted (1) | 1,2 | 2,7 | 2,4 | 2,2 | 2,3 | 2,3 |
Current account balance (2) | 5,6 | 5,8 | 4,8 | 4,4 | 3,9 | 3,7 |
Hours worked (3) | –3,8 | 2,3 | 4,0 | 1,0 | 0,2 | 0,6 |
Employment | –1,3 | –0,2 | 2,1 | 1,2 | 0,5 | 0,6 |
Unemployment (4) | 8,3 | 8,9 | 7,6 | 7,0 | 7,0 | 7,0 |
Labour market gap (5) | –4,5 | –3,1 | 0,0 | 0,3 | 0,0 | 0,0 |
Output gap (6) | –3,7 | –1,6 | 0,4 | 0,2 | 0,0 | 0,0 |
Hourly wages (7) | 2,1 | 2,9 | 2,5 | 2,8 | 3,1 | 3,2 |
Hourly labour costs (3,8) | 4,0 | 2,8 | 1,2 | 3,1 | 3,2 | 3,2 |
Productivity (3) | 0,5 | 2,3 | 0,0 | 0,6 | 1,3 | 1,3 |
CPI | 0,5 | 2,1 | 2,0 | 2,1 | 2,3 | 2,6 |
CPIF | 0,5 | 2,3 | 2,1 | 2,1 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
Repo rate (9,10) | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,25 | 0,50 |
Ten-year government bond rate (9) | 0,0 | 0,3 | 0,5 | 0,9 | 1,3 | 1,6 |
Krona index (KIX) (11) | 118,5 | 114,2 | 114,4 | 114,4 | 114,4 | 114,4 |
Government net lending (2) | –2,8 | –1,0 | 0,0 | 0,5 | 0,4 | 0,4 |
Structural net lending (12) | –0,9 | –0,1 | 0,1 | 0,3 | 0,3 | 0,3 |
Maastricht debt (2) | 39,6 | 36,6 | 33,0 | 31,0 | 30,4 | 29,8 |
1 KIX-weighted GDP and CPI is an aggregate calculated using the Riksbank’s KIX weights, which cover Sweden’s 32 most important trading partners.
2 Per cent of GDP.
3 Calendar-adjusted.
4 Per cent of labour force.
5 Difference between actual and potential hours worked in per cent of potential hours worked.
6 Difference between actual and potential GDP in per cent of potential GDP.
7 According to the monthly wage statistics.
8 For employees.
9 Per cent.
10 At year-end. Decisions at the end of December are implemented in January.
11 Index, 18 November 1992=100.
12 Per cent of potential GDP.
