2020-12-18
Swedish Economy Report December 2020
Swedish Economy Report December 2020
After the sharp downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the second quarter 2020, the Swedish economy recovered more strongly than expected in the third quarter as infections eased.
However, the second wave of infections now engulfing Sweden and the rest of Europe has caused the recovery to stall in the fourth quarter. Positive signals that a vaccination campaign can begin as early as the start of 2021 mean that the recovery will pick up again in the second quarter.
The economy will nevertheless continue to operate well below capacity in 2021, and unemployment will average 9 per cent. Despite highly expansionary fiscal policy 2020 to support the economy during the pandemic, and record-high unfunded measures budgeted for 2021, public finances remain strong.
There is therefore still considerable scope to support the economy with further public spending in 2021 should the economy for some reason perform much worse than forecast.
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP, Market Prices | –2.8 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
GDP per Capita | –3.7 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
GDP. Calendar-Adjusted | –3.1 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
GDP. World | –4.0 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
Current Account Balance (1) | 5.9 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
Hours Worked (2) | –4.0 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
Employment | –1.6 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
Unemployment Rate (3) | 8.5 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 7.0 |
Labour Market Gap (4) | –4.6 | –3.4 | –1.1 | –0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Output Gap (5) | –3.8 | –2.5 | –0.7 | –0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Hourly Earnings (6) | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.1 |
Hourly Labour Costs (2.7) | 3.9 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.1 |
Productivity (2) | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
CPI | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
CPIF | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
Repo Rate (8.9) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
10-year Government Bond Yield (8) | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
Effective Krona Exchange Rate Index (KIX) (10) | 118.6 | 114.3 | 113.0 | 111.9 | 111.6 | 111.8 |
Government Net Lending (1) | –3.4 | –2.8 | –1.1 | –0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
Structural Net Lending (11) | –1.8 | –1.3 | –0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Maastricht Debt (1) | 39.6 | 40.2 | 38.8 | 38.3 | 37.5 | 36.7 |
- Per cent of GDP.
- Calendar-adjusted.
- Per cent of labour force.
- Difference between actual and potential hours worked in per cent of potential hours worked.
- Difference between actual and potential GDP in per cent of potential GDP.
- According to the short-term earnings statistics.
- Refers to the hours of employees
- Per cent.
- At year-end.
- Index 18 November 1992=100.
- Per cent of potential GDP.
Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden, National Mediation Office, Sveriges Riksbank, Macrobond and NIER.
