2020-10-01
Swedish Economy Report September 2020
Swedish Economy Report September 2020
As expected, Sweden’s GDP fell dramatically in the second quarter due to the COVID-19 pandemic. There are now clear signs of a strong rebound in the third quarter. The government’s measures are providing support for both firms and households.
Lower infection rates, greatly expanded testing for COVID-19, economic policy measures and a gradual adjustment of both households’ and firms’ behaviour to balance continued economic activity with the risk of infection have helped household consumption regain much of the ground lost earlier in the year. Stronger demand abroad and the restoration of supply chains have also helped exports to reverse much of their previous decline. The economy is still operating below capacity, however, and the recovery is now set to enter a more gradual phase. The turnaround in the labour market has yet to begin. The large numbers working short-time mean that firms have limited recruitment needs despite growing production. Unemployment will therefore continue to rise and peak close to 10 per cent in the fourth quarter this year. Economic policy will continue to support the recovery next year, but the output gap will not close until 2023.
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP, market prices | 1.3 | -3.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
GDP per capita | 0.2 | -4.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
GDP, calendar-adjusted | 1.3 | -3.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
GDP, world | 2.9 | -4.3 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
Current account balance (1) | 4.2 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
Hours worked (2) | -0.3 | -3.7 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
Employment | 0.7 | -1.9 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
Unemployment (3) | 6.8 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 7.1 |
Labour market gap (4) | 0.0 | -4.0 | -2.4 | -0.8 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
Output gap (5) | 0.5 | -4.3 | -2.2 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Hourly wages (6) | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
Hourly labour costs (2,7) | 4.0 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
Productivity (2) | 1.7 | -0.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
CPI | 1.8 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
CPIF | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
Repo rate (8,9) | -0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
Ten-year government bond rate (8) | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
Krona index (KIX) (10) | 122.1 | 119.3 | 117.2 | 115.8 | 113.9 | 111.5 |
Government net lending (1) | 0.4 | -3.6 | -2.6 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 0.3 |
Structural net lending (11) | 0.3 | -1.8 | -1.1 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
Maastricht debt (1) | 35.2 | 39.9 | 40.0 | 40.1 | 39.7 | 39.0 |
- Per cent of GDP.
- Calendar-adjusted.
- Per cent of labour force.
- Difference between actual and potential hours worked in per cent of potential hours worked.
- Difference between actual and potential GDP in per cent of potential GDP.
- According to the short-term earnings statistics.
- Refers to the hours of employees
- Per cent.
- At year-end.
- Index 18 November 1992=100.
- Per cent of potential GDP.
Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden, National Mediation Office, Sveriges Riksbank, Macrobond and NIER.
