Summary of the Fiscal Sustainability Report 2022

Although the pandemic has placed a substantial burden on public finances in the short term, the NIER considers Sweden’s public finances to be long-term sustainable. Current tax rules are sufficient to fund a growing need for welfare services as the population ages. We believe there is scope to cut taxes or increase expenditure and still meet the surplus target. Even if this is replaced with a balanced-budget target at the next review, Maastricht debt does not exceed the debt anchor. Our analysis is based on a number of assumptions, including that the population’s health improves as life expectancy increases, and so more people choose to work to a later age. Public finances are also considered sustainable in the alternative scenarios presented. Our analysis does show, however, that the assumption of improved health is crucial to sustainability in the longer term. Compared with previous years’ calculations, a more favourable demographic outlook and a better starting position contribute to stronger public finances than in this year’s report.