2017-11-29

Economic Tendency Survey November 2017

Upbeat consumers see low risk of unemployment

The Economic Tendency Indicator climbed from 113.4 in October to 114.1 in November and points to much stronger growth than normal in the Swedish economy. All business sectors other than construction contributed to the rise. The consumer confidence indicator climbed for a second month, due mainly to a more positive view of the current state of their personal finances. Consumers also consider the risk of becoming unemployed to be at a 16-year low.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry rose from 121.2 in October to 121.9 in November and continues to show a very strong situation for the sector as a whole. The signals remain strong across the various subsectors.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry fell 2.5 points in November, due to firms being slightly less positive about their order books, but the indicator still signals a much stronger situation than normal.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade gained for a second month, from 103.2 to 104.0. The whole of the increase is attributable to the grocery trade.

The confidence indicator for the service sector was unchanged at 104.7, which indicates a somewhat stronger situation than normal. Firms’ view of their business volumes remains much more positive than normal, despite edging back in November, and they remain as optimistic as before about demand and employment.

Indicators

 

Sep
2017

Oct
2017

Nov
2017

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

113,9

113,4

114,1

++

Confidence indicators:

    

Total industry

110,3

109,9

110,1

++

Manufacturing

124,8

121,2

121,9

++

Building and civil engineering

114,0

115,0

112,5

++

Retail Trade

101,2

103,2

104,0

+

Private service sectors

104,3

104,7

104,7

+

Consumer

102,0

105,9

108,0

+

 

Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The indicators are revised each month when the time series are seasonally adjusted. The values will often then move slightly up or down.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

 

Household expectations on inflation and interest rate

 

Sep
2017

Oct
2017

Nov
2017

Change

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean excluding extreme values (percent)

2,5

2,8

2,3

-0,5

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean all answers (percent)

2,8

3,2

2,6

-0,6

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, median (percent)

2,0

2,0

2,0

0,0

Interest rate expectation, mean excluding extreme values (percent):

    

1 year ahead

2,25

2,26

2,27

0,01

2 years ahead

2,73

2,74

2,74

0,00

5 years ahead

3,47

3,58

3,49

-0,09

Changes to the consumer survey

Since November 2017, the two questions about expectations for housing prices are no longer form part of the consumer survey. From January 2018, the questions about plans to buy a car, purchase a home and make home improvements in the next 12 months will be included in the survey only every third month (January, April, July and October).

Subscribe to our newsletters

Email

Newsletters:
Current reports on the economy
Working Papers