2018-01-25

Economic Tendency Survey January 2018

Sentiment positive despite weaker signals from manufacturing and service sector

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell from 112.0 in December to 110.2 in January but still points to a much stronger situation than normal in the Swedish economy. The decrease was mainly a result of weaker signals from manufacturing and services. The consumer confidence indicator also edged down, due to a slightly less positive view of the Swedish economy, but consumers’ view of their personal finances improved further.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry has fallen relatively far over the past two months but still shows a much stronger situation than normal. The drop in January was due primarily to firms’ view of their order books falling from a record high in December. Production plans, which were revised down considerably in December, held at this lower level but still indicate stronger growth in production than normal going forward.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry was almost unchanged in January after falling for two months. Despite its recent decline, the indicator still suggests a much stronger situation than normal. Firms’ view of their order books deteriorated slightly for a fourth successive month, while their recruitment plans improved marginally.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade did not change appreciably in January and still shows a stronger situation than normal. The most positive signals were from the retail sale of non-durable goods, while the situation reported by other retailers and the motor trade is in line with the historical average.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector fell in January, pulled down chiefly by slightly weaker signals about developments in their operations and demand in recent months, but demand is still considered to have been stronger than normal.

Indicators

 

Nov
2017

Dec
2017

Jan
2018

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

114,1

112,0

110,2

++

Confidence indicators:

    

Total industry

110,4

109,1

107,8

+

Manufacturing

121,5

116,1

113,8

++

Building and civil engineering

112,3

110,5

110,3

++

Retail Trade

103,9

103,3

103,2

+

Private service sectors

105,2

106,7

104,9

+

Consumer

108,1

107,7

107,2

+


Note.
The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The indicators are revised each month when the time series are seasonally adjusted. The values will often then move slightly up or down.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

 

Household expectations on inflation and interest rate

 

Nov
2017

Dec
2017

Jan
2018

Change

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean excluding extreme values (percent)

2,3

2,8

2,6

-0,2

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean all answers (percent)

2,6

3,4

3,2

-0,2

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, median (percent)

2,0

2,0

2,0

0,0

Interest rate expectation, mean excluding extreme values (percent):

    

1 year ahead

2,27

2,31

2,28

-0,03

2 years ahead

2,74

2,74

2,71

-0,03

5 years ahead

3,49

3,44

3,40

-0,04

Changes to the consumer survey

Since November 2017, the two questions about expectations for housing prices are no longer form part of the consumer survey. From January 2018, the questions about plans to buy a car, purchase a home and make home improvements in the next 12 months will be included in the survey only every third month (January, April, July and October).

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