2017-09-27

Economic Tendency Survey September 2017

Manufacturing indicator goes from strength to strength

The Economic Tendency Indicator climbed from 110.5 in August to 113.8 in September, its six successive month above 110, a level that indicates much stronger growth than normal in the Swedish economy. The rise in September was due mainly to even stronger signals from manufacturing, where confidence hit a new high. The other parts of the business sector made a slightly negative contribution to the overall indicator, and consumers’ view of the economy improved only marginally.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry jumped 8.2 points to a new high, due mainly to a sharp upward revision of production plans for the next three months. Firms’ positive view of the current situation is very broad-based, with a majority of subsectors reporting a strong or very strong situation.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry edged back after climbing in August, but continues to suggest a much stronger situation than normal. Firms report that activity has increased even more quickly in recent months. The net balance – the difference between the proportion of firms reporting increased versus decreased activity – is at its highest since 1996.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade fell for a third month to just above the historical average. The decline is the result of a weaker sales performance over the past three months.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector fell 1.3 points in September, due mainly to slightly weaker expectations for demand in the coming months, but still points to a stronger situation than normal.

Indicators

 

Jul

2017

Aug

2017

Sep

2017

Situation

Economic Tendency Indicator

111,9

110,5

113,8

++

Confidence indicators:

    

Total industry

110,1

109,0

110,3

++

Manufacturing

119,6

116,4

124,6

++

Building and civil engineering

111,0

115,1

114,1

++

Retail Trade

105,7

103,0

101,2

+

Private service sectors

104,9

105,6

104,3

+

Consumer

102,2

101,0

101,8

+


Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The indicators are revised each month when the time series are seasonally adjusted. The values will often then move slightly up or down. The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

 

Household expectations on inflation and interest rate

 

Jul

2017

Aug

2017

Sep

2017

Change

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean excluding extreme values (percent)

2,7

2,1

2,5

0,4

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean all answers (percent)

3,2

2,2

2,8

0,6

Expected inflation 12 months ahead, median (percent)

2,0

2,0

2,0

0,0

Interest rate expectation, mean excluding extreme values (percent):

    

1 year ahead

2,21

2,27

2,25

-0,02

2 years ahead

2,74

2,82

2,73

-0,09

5 years ahead

3,49

3,70

3,47

-0,23


Planned changes to the consumer survey

From November 2017, the two questions about expectations for housing prices will no longer form part of the consumer survey. From January 2018, the questions about plans to buy a car, purchase a home and make home improvements in the next 12 months will be included in the survey only every third month (January, April, July and October).

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