A less optimistic outlook among consumers

The Economic Tendency Indicator marginally declined in February to 97.1, indicating a slightly subdued sentiment. The consumer confidence indicator dropped by 3.3 points to 95.0, also reflecting a weaker sentiment than usual. At the same time, price plans among many firms in the trade sector have increased and are at their highest level since May 2023.

The decline in the consumer confidence indicator is primarily explained by significantly lowered expectations regarding the development of the Swedish economy over the next twelve months. Consumers' expectations for their own financial situation also weakened, contributing to the decline.

The confidence indicator for the trade sector rose to 109.0, signalling a stronger sentiment than usual. More firms expect increased sales prices over the coming three months compared to January. The proportion of firms expecting higher sales prices is highest in the grocery trade, where nearly 8 out of 10 firms anticipate price increases. Overall, price plans within the trade sector have strengthened and are now above the historical average, reaching their highest level since May 2023.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry increased slightly to 95.6 but remains the weakest among the sectors in the business sector. However, there are industrial sectors where firms report strong development. The most evident positive signals come from firms within the other transport equipment industry (manufacturing of transport equipment other than motor vehicles) and the food industry.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry declined to 99.0 and is once again below the historical average. A large proportion of housebuilders believe that order backlogs will increase over the coming three months. This contrasts with civil engineering firms, whose expectations regarding the development of order backlogs are slightly below normal.

The confidence indicator for the service sector increased marginally and is in line with the historical average. Firms' expectations regarding demand over a three-month horizon weakened but remain the strongest component of the indicator. Two industries where a high proportion of firms expect increased demand are technical consultancy and travel agencies.