2025-01-30
Economic Tendency Survey January 2025
Weakened Sentiment in the Industry
The Economic Tendency Indicator increased marginally in January to 97.7, indicating a continued weaker sentiment than normal. The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry declined in January to 94.8. The confidence indicator for the service sector increased to 100.0, a level corresponding to the historical average and the highest since July 2022. The confidence indicator for consumers rose in January and is now close to the historical average.
The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry declined slightly in January to 94.8. The downturn is explained by weaker production plans. At the same time, firms in the industry increased their expectations for sales prices in the export market over a three-month horizon. As a result, firms' pricing plans remain above normal, both in the domestic and export markets.
The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry increased slightly to 101.5, driven by improved employment plans among both housebuilders and civil engineers. At the same time, the order book assessment deteriorated somewhat, which dampened the increase in the indicator. An unusually high number of construction firms believe in an improvement in the construction market within a year.
The confidence indicator for the retail sector decreased slightly to 109.5 but continues to indicate strong sentiment. The indicator for the motor vehicle trade deteriorated significantly, falling by 7.0 points to 100.5. In contrast, the grocery trade moved in the opposite direction, with its indicator rising by 3.3 points to 112.3, signaling a significantly stronger sentiment than normal. Retail firms continue to expect, to a greater extent than normal, that sales prices will increase over the next three months.
The increase in the confidence indicator for consumers is mainly explained by an improved perception of their own economic development over the past twelve months. Many consumers still consider it beneficial to save at present. At the same time, consumers' plans for home purchases, home renovations, and car purchases over the next twelve months are significantly more restrained than normal. Consumers expect housing prices, in general, to rise by 4.2 percent over the coming twelve months. Those who own their homes believe the price development of their property will increase by 4.0 percent in the next twelve months.