Significantly weakened sentiment among households but more positive in the business sector

The Economic Tendency Indicator held steady at 97.5 in December, signalling somewhat weaker sentiment than normal in the Swedish economy. While the overall indicator was unchanged, there were sizeable movements in some sectors. Retail sentiment improved, while the consumer indicator fell.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry edged up to 96.5 and continues to show weaker sentiment than normal. A large share of firms reported a decrease in production volumes over the past three months. Production plans for the next three months suggest that volumes will rise again, but at a rate below the historical average.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry rose 1.6 points to 100.2, pointing to a normal situation. There was, however, a big gap between the two segments, with the civil engineering indicator at 109.3 and the building indicator much lower at 95.9.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade climbed 4.4 points to 111.0, thanks to low stocks and a positive view of sales volumes both over the past three months and in the coming three months.

The confidence indicator for the service sector rose 1.6 points to 98.9. Firms remain more unhappy than usual with business volumes, but expectations for demand over the next three months have become more optimistic and are at their highest since April 2022.

The consumer confidence indicator fell after climbing non-stop for more than a year. The indicator slipped 4.9 points to 96.7, taking it back below the historical average. The dec-line was due mainly to consumers expressing less optimistic expectations for both their personal finances and the Swedish economy. The forward-looking questions in the indicator nevertheless remain the strongest.