Broad-based increase in the Economic Tendency Indicator

The Economic Tendency Indicator climbed 3.6 points in November to 97.2, its highest since August 2022, but still points to weaker sentiment than normal in the Swedish economy. Sentiment improved in all sectors, with the biggest rises in manufacturing and construction. Manufacturing nevertheless remains the weakest sector, while the strongest signals are from retail.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry rose 4.2 points to 95.8. The increase was driven mainly by stronger production plans, although these are still slightly less positive than normal. On the other hand, manufacturers reported a decline in new export orders over the past three months, especially in the automotive industry.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry also rose 4.2 points to 98.4. The improvement was due to homebuilders taking a less negative view of their order books.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade edged up to 106.0. There was a clear improvement of almost 6 points in the indicator for specialist retail, meaning that sentiment there is now almost as strong as for food retail, where the indicator fell back in November.

The confidence indicator for the service sector climbed 2.7 points to 97.1. Firms again reported a decline in employee numbers over the past three months, but their employment plans point to a largely unchanged workforce over the next three months.

The consumer confidence indicator climbed for a fourteenth successive month and is slightly above the historical average. Consumers’ expectations for the next year for both their personal finances and the Swedish economy are much more optimistic than normal. However, their view of whether now is a good time to make major purchases is deeply negative, and this was by far the weakest question in the indicator.