2024-07-30

Economic Tendency Survey July 2024

More and more households planning car purchase

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell 1.4 points in July to 95.0. The consumer and retail indicators both gained almost 3 points, while the service indicator dropped the same amount.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell 2.2 points to 97.0 and shows slightly weaker sentiment than normal. Although production plans in industry as a whole are a little more negative than normal, there are examples of industries where plans are unusually positive, such as pulp and paper. One industry where plans are unusually weak is machinery.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry was almost unchanged in July at 96.6. Builders are much more positive than normal about the outlook a year ahead. Most of the improvement here in July was in housebuilding, where expectations are close to a record high. Eighteen months ago, the situation was the reverse, with record-low expectations.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade climbed 2.8 points to 101.8, which means that sentiment in the sector is slightly stronger than normal. The improvement can be explained by the motor trade indicator leaping almost 9 points to 104.9.

The confidence indicator for the service sector dropped 2.8 points to 94.0, due mainly to a more negative view of demand in recent months.

The consumer confidence indicator climbed 2.9 points to 96.6. Sentiment has now improved for ten consecutive months and is nearing the historical average. The share of households planning a car purchase in the next year increased relatively strongly, with around the same number of households as normal now planning to buy or change cars.