Economic Tendency Survey June 2024

Business sentiment close to normal

The Economic Tendency Indicator climbed 2.2 points in June to 96.3. For the first time in nearly two years, the business sector indicators are together close to 100, meaning that sentiment is approaching normal levels.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry edged up 0.6 points to 99.2, which can be seen as a normal level. The picture does, however, vary considerably between segments. By far the strongest signals are from manufacturers of transport equipment other than motor vehicles, but the pulp industry is also reporting a much stronger situation than normal. Two industries where sentiment is much weaker than normal are steel/metals and machinery.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry climbed 1.2 points to 97.0. Both of the component indicators made gains, with civil engineering up 2.5 points to 109.4 and homebuilding up 1.0 points to 92.9.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade jumped 6.0 points to 98.6, making up much of the ground lost in May when it plummeted almost 10 points. The recovery can be explained mainly by positive signals about sales in recent months and by more companies reporting low stock levels.

The confidence indicator for the service sector rose 2.6 points to 96.9. While sentiment in the sector is still slightly weaker than normal, employment plans for the next three months are more positive than normal.

The consumer confidence indicator improved to 93.3. The macro index summarising consumers’ view of the Swedish economy climbed to 101.8, passing the 100 mark for the first time since February 2022. The micro index summarising how consumers view their personal finances rose to 86.2, but is still well below normal levels.