Economic Tendency Survey March 2022

Consumers as downbeat as during financial crisis

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell 2.8 points from 113.1 in February to 110.3 in March. Sentiment in the economy nevertheless remains much stronger than normal. The consumer indicator was the biggest mover, plummeting 15.5 points.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry climbed 0.7 points to 125.0. The indicator for intermediate goods producers fell nearly 4 points, while the indicator for consumer goods producers climbed almost as far.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry fell 0.7 points but still shows a stronger situation than normal. The indicator has been stable since June last year, moving by only the odd point from month to month.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade remained volatile in March, dropping 7.7 points to 111.3. This was a result of fewer firms reporting insufficient stocks and less positive expectations for sales volumes.

The confidence indicator for the service sector rose 1.4 points to 108.3. One segment that stands out is hotels and restaurants, where the indicator is much stronger than normal. Firms were previously extremely dissatisfied with business volumes, but these too are approaching normal levels.

The consumer confidence indicator plunged 15.5 points from 89.0 to 73.5, its lowest since 2009. The Macro Index measuring consumers’ confidence in the Swedish economy fell almost 14 points to 89.4, while the Micro Index summing up how they view their personal finances dropped slightly more than 16 points to 71.2.