Economic Tendency Survey January 2022

Broad decline in January

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell 6.2 points from 116.3 in December to 110.1 in January, with all sectors other than construction contributing to the decline. The consumer and retail indicators dropped furthest, but there were also relatively large falls in the other sectors.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell 5.1 points in January but is still at an unusually high level. The decline was broad-based but particularly clear in capital goods.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry bucked the trend by gaining 1.4 points. The building indicator rose, while the civil engineering indicator was unchanged.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade fell 6.8 points to 104.0. Increasingly negative expectations for future sales volumes were the main factor behind the decline, but historical sales volumes over the past three months and current stock levels contributed as well.

The confidence indicator for the service sector also weakened in January. Two segments with big falls were hotels & restaurants and travel agents, both down around 20 points on December.

The consumer confidence indicator saw a sharp decline of 8.2 points from 98.3 to 90.1, its lowest since November 2020. The Micro Index summarising how consumers view their personal finances fell 7.4 points, while the Macro Index, which measures their view of the Swedish economy, fell 6.3 points.