Economic Tendency Survey November 2020

Retail indicator down in November

The Economic Tendency Indicator rose from 96.0 in October to 97.5 in November, thanks especially to stronger signals from manufacturing, and would have climbed further had the retail indicator not fallen 7.6 points.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry continued recent months’ improvement, gaining a further 4.2 points in November. This was due chiefly to firms’ view of their stocks of finished goods, but their expectations for production and assessment of current order books also contributed.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry rose 1.7 points as firms became more positive about their order books.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade fell 7.6 points. All of the questions contributed to the decrease, but expected sales volumes contributed the most. The motor trade and specialist retail were the segments where confidence declined.

The confidence indicator for the service sector was largely unchanged. The questions about firms’ business and demand in recent months pushed up the indicator, while expectations for demand in the coming months pulled the other way. One industry with a sharp deterioration was hotels and restaurants, where confidence dropped no fewer than 21 points from October to November.

The consumer confidence indicator fell 0.9 points to 88.3 as a result of more negative expectations in terms of both personal finances and the economy as a whole. The macro index, which measures how consumers view the Swedish economy, fell almost 3 points, while the micro index, which measures how they view their personal finances, was slightly higher than in October.

The collection method for the consumer survey has been modified with effect from November 2020. The consequences for both the Economic Tendency Indicator and the consumer indicator are minor and do not affect any interpretation of the results.