Economic Tendency Survey October 2019

Economic Tendency Indicator falls again in October

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell slightly further from 94.4 in September to 93.6 in October and continues to show weaker sentiment than normal among both firms and consumers.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell 1.2 points due to firms taking a more negative view of their stocks of finished goods. Production plans for the next three months were revised up a little but remain the component that is pulling the indicator below 100.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry climbed slightly and points to slightly stronger sentiment than normal. The improvement was a result of firms being more positive about their current order books, especially civil engineering firms.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade fell in October but still points to a somewhat stronger situation than normal. Both signals about recent months’ sales growth and expectations for sales growth in the coming months deteriorated.

The confidence indicator for the service sector dropped to 91.8 in October, its lowest since February 2013. All questions included in the indicator are contributing to this low level.

The consumer confidence indicator rose slightly in October but still, for the 13th consecutive month, points to more negative sentiment than normal. The improvement stemmed from consumers being a little more positive about their personal finances, both over the past year and in the coming year. Their view of the Swedish economy and expectations for unemployment, however, are as pessimistic as before.