Economic Tendency Survey December 2018

The Economic Tendency indicator holds steady in December

The Economic Tendency Indicator held at 106.3 in December. There was also relatively little movement in the various sector indicators, and they continue to paint a mixed picture. Consumers and the service sector, for example, are more pessimistic than normal, while the signals from manufacturing are still unusually strong.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry inched up marginally further in December and was already well above normal levels. Manufacturers remain positive about their order books and anticipate strong production growth in the coming months.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry also increased marginally after falling for three months and remains close to the historical average.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade did not change appreciably in December. A slightly brighter view of stocks of finished goods contributed positively, but there was a negative contribution from sales volumes, which were reported as having grown more slowly than normal in recent months.

The confidence indicator for the service sector fell slightly further and is now one point below the historical average. The decrease was due mainly to a slight deterioration in expectations for demand in the coming months.

The consumer confidence indicator decreased marginally further in December as a result of a more pessimistic view of the economy.