Economic Tendency Survey November 2018

Strong manufacturing industry props up tendency indicator

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell for a second month in November, from 107.6 to 106.7, but still points to stronger sentiment than normal in the economy, thanks mainly to the manufacturing industry.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry climbed slightly as a result of firms being even more positive about current order books, especially in the consumer goods industry. On the other hand, firms were less positive about stocks and revised their production plans down slightly further.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry fell for the third month in a row to around the historical average. This was due mainly to a downward revision of recruitment plans, which now suggest reduced employment in the coming months. Firms’ view of their order books also deteriorated slightly further, but is still stronger than normal.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade gained 1.9 points in November. The increase was due to decreased dissatisfaction with stock levels, especially in the motor trade, and more optimistic expectations of sales volumes in the coming months.

The confidence indicator for the service sector fell for a second month, dipping slightly below the historical average for the first time in four years. The decrease was due largely to weak demand in recent months, whereas expectations for demand in the coming months improved slightly and remain more optimistic than normal.

The consumer confidence indicator fell to 97.5, which corresponds to a weaker view of the economy than normal.