Economic Tendency Survey

Economic Tendency Survey October 2013

Economic Tendency Indicator climbs 3.4 points and is back above average

The Economic Tendency Indicator rose 3.4 points from 98.2 in September to 101.6 in October. The indicators for all sectors except private services increased. The manufacturing indicator climbed furthest, by 6.7 points, after dropping almost as far in September. The services indicator fell 1.7 points. All of the confidence indicators are now above their historic averages, with the exception of the indicator for the building and civil engineering industry, which is still slightly more than 5 points below the historic average.
The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry gained 6.7 points in October and is once again just above the historic average. Orders from the domestic market have risen in recent months, while export demand has softened somewhat. Output volume has increased, and plans indicate stronger growth in the coming months. Employment is expected to fall further, but the percentage of firms anticipating cutbacks is smaller than before.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry gained 2.3 points in October but remains slightly more than 5 points below the historic average. The order situation is still much weaker than normal, but firms are optimistic about the fourth quarter and expect both order books and output to improve. Their employment plans, however, indicate further cutbacks.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade gained 4.1 points in October and is now slightly more than 2 points above the historic average. The indicators for the food trade, the motor trade and the specialist retail trade all rose, but the indicator for the specialist retail trade is still well below the historic average. The retail trade is optimistic about the fourth quarter and anticipates a substantial increase in sales.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector fell 1.7 points in October but is still 3 points above the historic average. Demand has picked up in recent months, and firms anticipate substantial growth in the fourth quarter. Their employment plans also indicate improvements.

The Consumer Confidence Indicator climbed 4.1 points from 97.9 in September to 102 in October, which is 2 points above the historic average and indicates that households are more upbeat than normal. Households have become more positive about both their personal finances and the Swedish economy.

Bransch Max-value Min-value Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Change Situation
Economic Tendency Indicator 118,0 69,7 99,2 98,2 101,6 3,4 +
Confidence Indicators:            
   Total Industry 120,3 69,8 100,3 101,0 103,3 2,3 +
   Manufacturing 119,0 66,4 100,4 94,5 101,2 6,7 +
   Building and civil engineering 122,5 80,6 91,7 92,4 94,7 2,3 -
   Retail Trade 125,1 68,4 101,5 98,0 102,1 4,1 +
   Private Service Sector 118,2 72,9 99,8 104,7 103,0 -1,7 +
   Consumer 119,9 49,8 99,3 97,9 102,0 4,1 +
Macro index (consumers) 120,7 72,7 97,5 99,7 102,4 2,7 +
Micro index (consumers) 118,6 45,3 101,2 97,3 101,5 4,2 +
Expected inflation (12 months ahead)     1,4 1,8 1,5 -0,3  
Interest rate expectation:            
   1 year ahead     3,08 3,19 3,20 0,01  
   2 years ahead     3,46 3,60 3,58 -0,02  
   5 years ahead     3,96 4,01 4,08 0,07  
Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

Economic Tendency Indicator


Index, mean=100

Manufacturing


Index, mean=100

Building and civil engineering


Index, mean=100

Retail Trade


Index, mean=100

Private Service Sector


Index, mean=100

Consumer


Index, mean=100
Published: October 25, 2013