Economic Tendency Survey

Economic Tendency Survey April 2012

Growing household optimism

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell just under one point in April after having risen nearly 10 points over the previous two months. It is marginally above the historic average, indicating that growth in the Swedish economy is more or less normal. In the business sector, the manufacturing industry and the retail trade made a negative contribution to the Economic Tendency Indicator this month. The confidence indicators for the private service sector and consumers made a positive contribution in April.
The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell two points in April and is currently three points above the historic average. Both new orders and output volume were largely unchanged in the first quarter as was the assessment of the order situation. Industrial firms are relatively optimistic about the second quarter and forecast an increase in both new orders and output volume. Overall, employment is expected to remain almost unchanged.

 
The confidence indicator for the construction industry remained unchanged in April and is still considerably above the historic average. Civil engineering reports increased new orders, higher tender prices and increases in staffing, while the house building sector reports weaker growth. There are also appreciable differences between the sectors with regard to expectations. Civil engineering is the most optimistic sector and forecasts strong growth for the second quarter. House builders forecast largely unchanged output during this period.

 
The confidence indicator for the retail trade fell two points in April after having risen 12 points over the previous two months. The indicator is currently eight points below the historic average. As previously, there are major differences between the various sectors, with food trade sales showing the strongest growth. The specialist retail trade reports sales growth following several quarters of declining sales figures, while the motor vehicle trade reports reduced sales. The retail trade forecasts continued sales growth for the second quarter of the year, with the food trade the most optimistic sector as previously.

 
The confidence indicator for the private service sector rose three points in April and is once again above the historic average. Demand in the private service sector increased in the first quarter following two weak quarters. Service firms forecast a further increase in both demand and employment for the second quarter of the year.

 
The Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) rose nearly five points in April and is currently only marginally below the historic average. Confidence in both personal finances and the Swedish economy has become more positive.

Bransch Mean Max-value Min-value Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 Situation
Economic Tendency Indicator 100,0 115,8 71,2 94,0 101,8 100,9 +
Confidence Indicators            
   Total Industry 9 32 -29 0 12 11 +
   Manufacturing -4 12 -38 -12 1 -1 +
   Construction -15 48 -77 -14 -1 -1 +
   Retail Trade 13 40 -26 0 7 5 -
   Private Service Sector 23 49 -21 10 21 24 +
   Consumer (CCI) 5,2 30,0 -38,3 -3,2 0,0 4,7 -
Macro index -1,8 47,4 -69,8 -27,2 -18,7 -9,4 -
Micro index 5,4 18,9 -21,3 4,1 4,8 6,6 +
Expected inflation 12 months ahead       2,3 2,8 3,0  
Interest rate expectation              
   1 year ahead       4,23 4,00 4,00  
   2 years ahead       4,48 4,27 4,31  
   5 years ahead       4,82 4,60 4,69  
Situation: ++ The situation is very strong, + The situation is strong, - The situation is weak, -- The situation is very weak.

Economic Tendency Indicator

Manufacturing

Construction Industry

Retail Trade

Private Service Sector

Consumer, CCI

Published: April 26, 2012