Economic Tendency Survey

Economic Tendence Survey February 2014

Almost all indicators fell in February

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell 2.8 points from 107.4 in January to 104.6 in February. All the underlying indicators fell except that for the building and civil engineering industry, which gained 3.3 points. The biggest drop was in the manufacturing indicator, which fell almost 4 points. However, all indicators are still above their historical averages.
The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell 3.9 points in February but remains above the historical average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator contributed to the decrease: the assessment of current stocks of finished goods was less positive, and production plans were less optimistic, but the assessment of current order books was more positive.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry gained 3.3 points in February and is now 3.7 points above the historical average. Both questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: employment plans were revised up sharply, and the assessment of current order books improved marginally.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade fell 1.6 points in February but remains slightly more than 6 points above the historical average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator contributed to the decrease: historical sales were less positive, and expectations for sales in the coming months were less optimistic, but the assessment of stocks of goods was more positive.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector fell 2 points in February and is now 6.4 points above the historical average. All three questions included in the indicator contributed to the decrease: historical demand was lower, expectations for demand in the coming months were somewhat less optimistic, and firms' assessment of how their operations have developed was less positive.

The Consumer Confidence Indicator fell 2.4 points from 102.7 in January to 100.3 in February and is now just above the historical average. Four of the five questions included in the indicator made a negative contribution: consumers´ expectations for both their personal finances and the Swedish economy over the next 12 months were less optimistic, and their view of both the current state of the Swedish economy and whether now is a good time to make major purchases was more negative, while their opinion of the current state of their personal finances was unchanged. Only the assessment of personal finances over the next 12 months was more pessimistic than normal (i.e. below the historical average).

Bransch Max-value Min-value Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Change Situation
Economic Tendency Indicator 117,9 69,3 106,0 107,4 104,6 -2,8 +
Confidence Indicators:            
   Total Industry 120,1 69,4 106,9 109,4 107,1 -2,3 +
   Manufacturing 119,0 65,9 106,5 107,7 103,8 -3,9 +
   Building and civil engineering 122,6 80,4 100,7 100,4 103,7 3,3 +
   Retail Trade 125,1 68,1 104,1 107,8 106,2 -1,6 +
   Private Service Sector 118,6 72,6 105,9 108,4 106,4 -2,0 +
   Consumer 120,0 49,3 104,6 102,7 100,3 -2,4 =
Macro index (consumers) 120,8 72,5 104,6 105,7 104,5 -1,2 +
Micro index (consumers) 118,1 44,8 104,2 98,9 95,8 -3,1 -
Expected inflation (12 months ahead)     1,5 1,1 1,0 -0,1  
Interest rate expectation:            
   1 year ahead     3,02 2,83 2,88 0,05  
   2 years ahead     3,41 3,33 3,33 0,00  
   5 years ahead     3,91 3,89 3,86 -0,03  
Note. The standardisation of the Economic Tendency Indicator means that it cannot be calculated as a weighted mean of the levels of the sector confidence indicators.

The situation is: ++ very strong, + strong, = normal, - weak, -- very weak.

The confidence indicator for the total industry is obtained by weighting the confidence indicators for building and civil engineering, manufacturing, the retail trade and the private service sector on the basis of the number of employees in the population. These weights are different to those used in the calculation of the Economic Tendency Indicator.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector has been estimated for January 1996 to November 2001 on the basis of quarterly series for a limited number of service industries.

Economic Tendency Indicator


Index, mean=100

Manufacturing


Index, mean=100

Building and civil engineering


Index, mean=100

Retail Trade


Index, mean=100

Private Service Sector


Index, mean=100

Consumer


Index, mean=100
Published: February 21, 2014
Almost all indicators fell in February